BlackBox Nigeria

Permit me to start by thanking Chatham House for the invitation to talk about this important topic at this crucial time. When speaking about Nigeria overseas, I normally prefer to be my country’s public relations and marketing officer, extolling her virtues and hoping to attract investments and tourists. But as we all know, Nigeria is now battling with many challenges, and if I refer to them, I do so only to impress on our friends in the United Kingdom that we are quite aware of our shortcomings and are doing our best to address them.

The 2015 general election in Nigeria is generating a lot of interests within and outside the country. This is understandable. Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and largest economy, is at a defining moment, a moment that has great implications beyond the democratic project and beyond the borders of my dear country.

So let me say upfront that the global interest in Nigeria’s landmark election is not misplaced at all and indeed should be commended; for this is an election that has serious import for the world. I urge the international community to continue to focus on Nigeria at this very critical moment. Given increasing global linkages, it is in our collective interests that the postponed elections should hold on the rescheduled dates; that they should be free and fair; that their outcomes should be respected by all parties; and that any form of extension, under whichever guise, is unconstitutional and will not be tolerated.

With the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the dissolution of the USSR in 1991, the collapse of communism and the end of the Cold War, democracy became the dominant and most preferred system of government across the globe. That global transition has been aptly captured as the triumph of democracy and the ‘most pre-eminent political idea of our time.’ On a personal note, the phased end of the USSR was a turning point for me. It convinced me that change can be brought about without firing a single shot.

As you all know, I had been a military head of state in Nigeria for twenty months. We intervened because we were unhappy with the state of affairs in our country. We wanted to arrest the drift. Driven by patriotism, influenced by the prevalence and popularity of such drastic measures all over Africa and elsewhere, we fought our way to power. But the global triumph of democracy has shown that another and a preferable path to change is possible. It is an important lesson I have carried with me since, and a lesson that is not lost on the African continent.

In the last two decades, democracy has grown strong roots in Africa. Elections, once so rare, are now so commonplace. As at the time I was a military head of state between 1983 and 1985, only four African countries held regular multi-party elections. But the number of electoral democracies in Africa, according to Freedom House, jumped to 10 in 1992/1993 then to 18 in 1994/1995 and to 24 in 2005/2006. According to the New York Times, 42 of the 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa conducted multi-party elections between 1990 and 2002.

The newspaper also reported that between 2000 and 2002, ruling parties in four African countries (Senegal, Mauritius, Ghana and Mali) peacefully handed over power to victorious opposition parties. In addition, the proportion of African countries categorized as not free by Freedom House declined from 59% in 1983 to 35% in 2003. Without doubt, Africa has been part of the current global wave of democratisation.

But the growth of democracy on the continent has been uneven. According to Freedom House, the number of electoral democracies in Africa slipped from 24 in 2007/2008 to 19 in 2011/2012; while the percentage of countries categorised as ‘not free’ assuming for the sake of argument that we accept their definition of “free” increased from 35% in 2003 to 41% in 2013. Also, there have been some reversals at different times in Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Cote D’Ivoire, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mali, Madagascar, Mauritania and Togo. We can choose to look at the glass of democracy in Africa as either half full or half empty.

While you can’t have representative democracy without elections, it is equally important to look at the quality of the elections and to remember that mere elections do not democracy make. It is globally agreed that democracy is not an event, but a journey. And that the destination of that journey is democratic consolidation – that state where democracy has become so rooted and so routine and widely accepted by all actors.

With this important destination in mind, it is clear that though many African countries now hold regular elections, very few of them have consolidated the practice of democracy. It is important to also state at this point that just as with elections, a consolidated democracy cannot be an end by itself. I will argue that it is not enough to hold a series of elections or even to peacefully alternate power among parties.

It is much more important that the promise of democracy goes beyond just allowing people to freely choose their leaders. It is much more important that democracy should deliver on the promise of choice, of freedoms, of security of lives and property, of transparency and accountability, of rule of law, of good governance and of shared prosperity. It is very important that the promise embedded in the concept of democracy, the promise of a better life for the generality of the people, is not delivered in the breach.

Now, let me quickly turn to Nigeria. As you all know, Nigeria’s fourth republic is in its 16th year and this general election will be the fifth in a row. This is a major sign of progress for us, given that our first republic lasted five years and three months, the second republic ended after four years and two months and the third republic was a still-birth. However, longevity is not the only reason why everyone is so interested in this election.

The major difference this time around is that for the very first time since transition to civil rule in 1999, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is facing its stiffest opposition so far from our party the All Progressives Congress (APC). We once had about 50 political parties, but with no real competition. Now Nigeria is transitioning from a dominant party system to a competitive electoral polity, which is a major marker on the road to democratic consolidation. As you know, peaceful alternation of power through competitive elections have happened in Ghana, Senegal, Malawi and Mauritius in recent times. The prospects of democratic consolidation in Africa will be further brightened when that eventually happens in Nigeria.

But there are other reasons why Nigerians and the whole world are intensely focussed on this year’s elections, chief of which is that the elections are holding in the shadow of huge security, economic and social uncertainties in Africa’s most populous country and largest economy. On insecurity, there is a genuine cause for worry, both within and outside Nigeria. Apart from the civil war era, at no other time in our history has Nigeria been this insecure.

Boko Haram has sadly put Nigeria on the terrorism map, killing more than 13,000 of our nationals, displacing millions internally and externally, and at a time holding on to portions of our territory the size of Belgium. What has been consistently lacking is the required leadership in our battle against insurgency. I, as a retired general and a former head of state, have always known about our soldiers: they are capable, well trained, patriotic, brave and always ready to do their duty in the service of our country.

You all can bear witness to the gallant role of our military in Burma, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Darfur and in many other peacekeeping operations in several parts of the world. But in the matter of this insurgency, our soldiers have neither received the necessary support nor the required incentives to tackle this problem. The government has also failed in any effort towards a multi-dimensional response to this problem leading to a situation in which we have now become dependent on our neighbours to come to our rescue.

Let me assure you that if I am elected president, the world will have no cause to worry about Nigeria as it has had to recently; that Nigeria will return to its stabilising role in West Africa; and that no inch of Nigerian territory will ever be lost to the enemy because we will pay special attention to the welfare of our soldiers in and out of service, we will give them adequate and modern arms and ammunitions to work with, we will improve intelligence gathering and border controls to choke Boko Haram’s financial and equipment channels, we will be tough on terrorism and tough on its root causes by initiating a comprehensive economic development plan promoting infrastructural development, job creation, agriculture and industry in the affected areas. We will always act on time and not allow problems to irresponsibly fester, and I, Muhammadu Buhari, will always lead from the front and return Nigeria to its leadership role in regional and international efforts to combat terrorism.

On the economy, the fall in prices of oil has brought our economic and social stress into full relief. After the rebasing exercise in April 2014, Nigeria overtook South Africa as Africa’s largest economy. Our GDP is now valued at $510 billion and our economy rated 26th in the world. Also on the bright side, inflation has been kept at single digit for a while and our economy has grown at an average of 7% for about a decade.

But it is more of paper growth, a growth that, on account of mismanagement, profligacy and corruption, has not translated to human development or shared prosperity. A development economist once said three questions should be asked about a country’s development: one, what is happening to poverty? Two, what is happening to unemployment? And three, what is happening to inequality?

The answers to these questions in Nigeria show that the current administration has created two economies in one country, a sorry tale of two nations: one economy for a few who have so much in their tiny island of prosperity; and the other economy for the many who have so little in their vast ocean of misery.

Even by official figures, 33.1% of Nigerians live in extreme poverty. That’s at almost 60 million, almost the population of the United Kingdom. There is also the unemployment crisis simmering beneath the surface, ready to explode at the slightest stress, with officially 23.9% of our adult population and almost 60% of our youth unemployed. We also have one of the highest rates of inequalities in the world.

With all these, it is not surprising that our performance on most governance and development indicators (like Mo Ibrahim Index on African Governance and UNDP’s Human Development Index.) are unflattering. With fall in the prices of oil, which accounts for more than 70% of government revenues, and lack of savings from more than a decade of oil boom, the poor will be disproportionately impacted.

In the face of dwindling revenues, a good place to start the repositioning of Nigeria’s economy is to swiftly tackle two ills that have ballooned under the present administration: waste and corruption. And in doing this, I will, if elected, lead the way, with the force of personal example.

On corruption, there will be no confusion as to where I stand. Corruption will have no place and the corrupt will not be appointed into my administration. First and foremost, we will plug the holes in the budgetary process. Revenue producing entities such as NNPC and Customs and Excise will have one set of books only. Their revenues will be publicly disclosed and regularly audited. The institutions of state dedicated to fighting corruption will be given independence and prosecutorial authority without political interference.

But I must emphasise that any war waged on corruption should not be misconstrued as settling old scores or a witch-hunt. I’m running for President to lead Nigeria to prosperity and not adversity.

In reforming the economy, we will use savings that arise from blocking these leakages and the proceeds recovered from corruption to fund our party’s social investments programmes in education, health, and safety nets such as free school meals for children, emergency public works for unemployed youth and pensions for the elderly.

As a progressive party, we must reform our political economy to unleash the pent-up ingenuity and productivity of the Nigerian people thus freeing them from the curse of poverty. We will run a private sector-led economy but maintain an active role for government through strong regulatory oversight and deliberate interventions and incentives to diversify the base of our economy, strengthen productive sectors, improve the productive capacities of our people and create jobs for our teeming youths.

In short, we will run a functional economy driven by a worldview that sees growth not as an end by itself, but as a tool to create a society that works for all, rich and poor alike. On March 28, Nigeria has a decision to make. To vote for the continuity of failure or to elect progressive change. I believe the people will choose wisely.

In sum, I think that given its strategic importance, Nigeria can trigger a wave of democratic consolidation in Africa. But as a starting point we need to get this critical election right by ensuring that they go ahead, and depriving those who want to scuttle it the benefit of derailing our fledgling democracy. That way, we will all see democracy and democratic consolidation as tools for solving pressing problems in a sustainable way, not as ends in themselves.

Prospects for Democratic Consolidation in Africa: Nigeria’s Transition

Permit me to close this discussion on a personal note. I have heard and read references to me as a former dictator in many respected British newspapers including the well regarded Economist. Let me say without sounding defensive that dictatorship goes with military rule, though some might be less dictatorial than others. I take responsibility for whatever happened under my watch.

I cannot change the past. But I can change the present and the future. So before you is a former military ruler and a converted democrat who is ready to operate under democratic norms and is subjecting himself to the rigours of democratic elections for the fourth time.

You may ask: why is he doing this? This is a question I ask myself all the time too. And here is my humble answer: because the work of making Nigeria great is not yet done, because I still believe that change is possible, this time through the ballot, and most importantly, because I still have the capacity and the passion to dream and work for a Nigeria that will be respected again in the comity of nations and that all Nigerians will be proud of.

I thank you for listening.

‎Source: Helen Event Blog

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Human rights activist, Mr. Martin Obinani Eloka, has accused the Divisional Police Officer, DPO, of a Police Division in Delta State (names withheld) of threatening his life for exposing alleged corrupt practices in his earlier petition to the Inspector-General of Police, IG, and President Goodluck Jonathan.
He said he was, therefore, sending an appeal to the IG and President to protect him and launch investigation into the corrupt practices of the DPO and his men.
In a strongly-worded petition, Eloka noted that consequent upon the threats to his life and family members by the DPO, he now lived in perpetual fear with his family members, particularly after the recent incident in which the police in the DPO's jurisdiction stormed his house to effect his arrest in the middle of the night.
Eloka said: "On November 23, 2014, about six policemen in plain clothes, stormed my house at about 11pm. Because the door was closed, one of them scaled the fence, forced the door open and others came in.
"When I escaped from them, my wife, son and daughter were beaten and taken to the police station. My daughter sustained severe leg injury."
Eloka said he was detained for two days in Asaba by the state Criminal Investigation Depart-ment, CID, over the petition he wrote to the IG and President.
He urged the IG, President Jonathan and the Police Services Commission, PSC, to come to his rescue and ensure justice to prevail, adding that he had gone into hiding to avoid his sudden death that might be masterminded by the police.
He said: "My offence was that I pleaded with them to release a man's motorcycle because he could not afford N10,000 demanded by the police.
"Instead, they charged him to court when it was obvious that he could not afford the money."

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The Chief of Army Staff, Lt. Gen. Kenneth Minimah, has said victory over the Boko Haram insurgents is still achievable before the elections scheduled for March 28.

Mininah, who was in Baga town in Kukawa Local Government Area of Borno State just liberated from the Boko Haram insurgency to give pep talk to the Nigerian troops on Wednesday, said the troops would continue the clampdown on the insurgents with the aim of routing them out of the country.

The army chief, who said he was impressed with what the troops had achieved so far, said the displaced residents of the reclaimed community should be able to return to their homes before the general elections.

Minimah after the visit to Baga told journalists in Maiduguri that, "It is achievable to end the Boko Haram activities very soon because we are still within the six weeks time frame. But we should not see the six weeks as a must-accomplished time. This is war and we will try and do whatever is possible to liberate more areas so that displaced citizens can go and resettle and possibly vote during the elections."

He added, "Whatever is possible we will do, but the six weeks should not be taken as if it must be accomplished. But we will try as much as possible to liberate the areas under the Boko Haram control."

In Baga he informed the soldiers that the President and Commander-in-Chief, President Goodluck Jonathan as well as Nigerians were proud of them.

"My visit here is on confidence-building and to inform you that Nigerians are singing your praises for your courage and urge you to keep up the tempo. You have made Nigerians proud. From today, it is never again for insurgents to take hold of any of our territory. Today, it is going to be victory all the way because the war is almost ended. From here we move to retake Gwoza, Marte and Madagali. With this, there is going to be no more Boko Haram; the slogan is 'never again' and even the President shares in this slogan," he said.

The Chief of Army Staff announced that every soldier that participated in the liberation of Baga would automatically be promoted to the next rank.

"As a way of commending your courage and patriotism, every soldier that participated in the Baga operation, whether dead or alive has been promoted to the next rank," said the COAS.

The jubilant soldiers including officers conducted the COAS and his team round part of the town where he inspected some of the recovered weapons and vehicles recovered from the dislodged terrorists.

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The number of cases filed against the All Progressives Congress presidential candidate, Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (rtd.), over alleged non-submission of his academic certificates to the Independent National Electoral Commission, has risen to at least 10.

Our correspondent confirmed 10 of the cases on Wednesday though more suits might have been filed.

Eight of the 10 confirmed suits are before the Federal High Court in Abuja, one before a Chief Magistrate's Court in Abuja and one other before the Federal High Court in Umuahia, Abia State.

The one before the Chief Magistrate's Court, a direct criminal complaint, is seeking the trial of Buhari for alleged perjury for making a false claim on oath of possessing academic qualifications.

The suit, before Chief Magistrate Abubakar Babashani of the FCT Magistrate Court, wants Buhari "to be brought to book" for allegedly claiming on oath that he had a certificate he did not obtain."

The four complainants are Shield Ufot, Jimmy David, Ogueri Enwerem and Tochukwu Okorie.

Ufot said on Wednesday that the suit was filed on behalf of the Niger Delta Salvation Front.

In their suit, the complainants claimed that Buhari, "with intent to mislead a public officer as to compliance with the provisions of Section 31 of the Electoral Act, 2010 deposed to various affidavits in the High Court of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, wherein he stated that he attended Katsina Provincial Secondary School, Katsina State and obtained a West African School Certificate and that the certificates he claimed to have obtained are with the Nigerian Army."

"That the Nigerian Army, in whose custody Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) claim the certificates are, issued a statement and denied being in possession of the school certificates," the plaintiffs added.

But the plaintiffs in the nine other suits are seeking court order disqualifying the opposition presidential candidate in the March 28 poll.

The cases before the Federal High Court in Abuja are seeking the disqualification of Buhari as a presidential candidate.

The cases are: FHC/ABJ/CS/116/15 (between Hon Donald Daunemigha v. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari); FHC/ABJ/CS/13/15 (Hon. Sergin Onuka Ibe v. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari); FHC/ABJ/CS/01/15 (Mr. Chukwunweike Okafor vs Buhari and two others); and FHC/ABJ/CS/14/15 (Barr. Max Ozoka v. Buhari and two others).

They also include FHC/ABJ/CS/3/15 (Barr. Friday Ojealaro V. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari and two others; FHC/ABJ/CS/20/15 (Barr. Friday Ojealaro V. Buhari and three others) and FHC/ABJ/CS/68/15 (Ayakeme Whiskey vs INEC and another).

The above mentioned cases are before Justice Adeniyi Ademola.

Another case before the Federal High Court in Abuja seeking Buhari's disqualification was filed on February 10, 2015 by Presidential View and Endorsement Platform and Barr. Smart Iheazor (FHC/ABJ/CS/1040/15). The defendants in the suit are Buhari and INEC.

The one before the Federal High Court in Umuahia was filed by Selekaye Victor Ben against Buhari and the Nigerian Army. The suit is numbered FHC/ABJ/CS/114/2015.

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AN Asaba High Court, Tuesday sentenced a member of a six-man gang that specializes in raping girls, identified as Chukwu Ebuka Sunday, to 35 years in jail for gang-raping a 17-year-old secondary school girl (names withheld) with five others now at large.
The offence was committed on November 23, 2012, at Akwuebulu, within Asaba judicial division, Asaba.
The victim had narrated: "On November 23, 2012, at 11am, my mother sent me on an errand to the market. On my way, along Arthur Richard Street, Akwuebulu, one boy called Ebuka seized me by my skirt, dragged me into their compound and locked the gate.
"He brought out a cutlass and threatened to cut me with it. He then used the cutlass to hit me on my stomach and also hit himself several times started boasting that he was a strong man and a cultist.
"He then pushed me into his room and raped me. Afterwards, he called his friends on phone and five boys came and also raped me."

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Pandemonium broke out in the Mosafejo, Oshodi-Isale area of Lagos State, after rival groups said to be members of the National Union of Road Transport Workers, clashed on Tuesday evening and early Wednesday.

Four people were reportedly killed, while several others were injured in the fracas which was stopped after the intervention of security agencies.

It was gathered that no fewer than 15 commercial buses were set on fire, while 12 others were vandalised.

Makeshift stalls in the Mosafejo Motor Park were also torched, leaving traders in the park mourning their losses.

When newsmen visited the scene of the incident on Wednesday, the atmosphere was still tense as men of the Nigeria Police Force and some soldiers were observed patrolling the area.

The motor park, usually filled with vehicles, was deserted as the police armoured tanks and patrol vans took over the space.

Broken bottles, shards of glass from shattered windscreens and pebbles, said to have been deployed by some of the hoodlums during the fight, littered the road.

Bloodstains dotted the Oshodi Roundabout, where a man was said to have been shot dead and his corpse taken away by the police.

A vehicle was still burning as of 1pm when our correspondent passed the area.

Around the same time, a police van manned by police officers was observed by our correspondent taking some teenagers away.

A source revealed that the fight involved three groups ─ Big London boys, Railway boys and Under-bridge boys.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the fight started after the police ordered that there should be a stop in hemp smoking in the motor park.

The move was said to have been supported by the Big London boys, which brought them in conflict with the Railway and Under-bridge gangs who saw them as an ally of the police.

She said, "That was the beginning of the fight. The Railway boys and the Under-bridge boys usually conspire to wage war against the Big London boys which also had Olu Omo as a leading member.

"Yesterday (Tuesday), the allied gangs struck again and killed four people. One particularly was popular here and we call him Afari. A man was shot in the eye, another in the hand and leg. Several others are in critical conditions in hospitals."

Another witness, who did not identify herself, said one Idris was cut with machete in the buttocks, leg and hand.‎
"No one knows if he will survive the attack because his condition is critical," she said.

When WE crossed over to the area where the Under-bridge and Railway groups had their camp, he met some of the men who alleged that the fight was sponsored by the Big London gang.
"It was around 11pm on Tuesday that they came here. They were many in the Big London group. They had the police backing them and they want to drive us away from here. They descended on our vehicles and set many of them ablaze which you can see for yourself.
"They shot and injured three of our people, who have been rushed to hospital. We don't know why they are after us and this fight could have been bloodier, but we decided to be calm," a man in the group, who did not identify himself, said.

Another member of the group, who equally declined identification, showed our correspondent an injury he sustained in his hand.
He said, "They shot at so many of us. This was where I was shot. Those guys were many. They shot at about 100 of us and burnt many buses."
Some of the traders, whose stalls were burnt, appealed for government's intervention.

Mrs. Taiwo Olajide, a mother of three and dealer in soft drinks, said she lost all her goods to the violence.
She said, "The hoodlums set fire on all the stalls in this park. They have ruined our business. This is where I feed my children and keep body and soul together."

Another trader, Mrs. Josephine Eze, said all her provisions were burnt.

Our correspondent also observed a cross-section of traders who were seated in front of their shops, which were not affected by the fracas.

They lamented that they had not been able to operate their business since the area was cordoned off by the police.

The Police Public Relations Officer, Kenneth Nwosu, while confirming the incident, said one person was killed, adding that the police recovered some weapons from the hoodlums.
He said, "There was an attempt to breach the peace at Oshodi. The hoodlums, who were rival members of the NURTW, engaged in a fight of supremacy over control of parks.
"In the process, about eight vehicles were burnt and 10 vandalised. One person was killed. Five cutlasses and four expended cartridges were recovered. Normalcy has been restored as adequate security has been made to avert any further breach of the peace."

Nwosu added that the police arrested nine suspects in connection with the crime.

Meanwhile, the Chairman of the Lagos State Council of the NURTW, Alhaji Tajudeen Agbede, has said the union will unravel the cause of incessant violent clashes in Oshodi.

He spoke on Wednesday while inaugurating a five-man committee to find out immediate and remote causes of the fracas in the area.

Agbede said the leadership of the union in the state would not fold its arms and watch some persons destroy the peace being enjoyed in the state.
He said, "We have been witnessing peace in Lagos State council of our union since my administration came in.

We have restored peace in all our parks, so we shall find out the cause of the present problems in Oshodi, with a view to finding a lasting solution to them."

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The kidnappers of United States missionary working in Kogi State, Rev. Phyllis Sortor, have reduced the ransom being demanded for her release from N60 million to N30 million, even as The Nigerian Governors Forum led by Governor Jonah Jang has demanded her immediate release.
The kidnappers were said to have called the superintendent of the Free Methodist Missionary church, where the American citizen operate a school, Mr Mathius Emenike, on Tuesday Night demanding a ransom of N60 million before effecting her release.
Vanguard gathered that the kidnappers however called again yesterday and reduced the ransom to N30 million while the woman who was allowed to speak to the church Superintendent begged him to inform the parent school in American to see how the money can be raised to effect her release.

Phyllis Sorto
The principal of the school, Mrs Shaibu Roseline Ojone, who confirmed the ransom demand said, "The kidnappers spoke with the superintendent of the missionary church, Mr Mathius Emenike where the ransom was reduced to N30m. In the conversation, Mrs Sortor pleaded with Emenike to try by all means and raise the money to enable her regain her freedom."
The principal however appealed to the security agents in the state to come to the aid of the school and ensure the timely rescue of the woman.
However, the State governor, Captain Idris Wada has condemned the kidnapping of the American missionary.
The governor in a statement issued by his Special Adviser on Media and Strategy, Mr. Jacob Edi described the act as barbaric and un-godly and "urged the security agencies in the state to do everything necessary to effect her release while those behind the dastardly act should be brought to book."
Meanwhile, the Governor Jang-led Governors Forum in a statement signed by NGF Secretary and Administrator, Earl Osaro Onaiwu frowned at the abduction of Rev. Phyllis Sortor, describing it as "wicked and an embarrassment to the country that will not yield anything positive for the kidnappers.
The governors affirmed their support for Gov. Wada of Kogi state in his effort to ensure peace and security in the state, just as they called on the security agents to leave no stone unturned at ensuring the safe return of the Reverend.

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